This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

  • The main striker could start scoring again.
  • The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.

Teresa Bentley
Teresa Bentley

Elara Vance is a seasoned gaming journalist with over a decade of experience covering esports and indie game development.

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