Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
