Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.