Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”