A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
